Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 17.995979 20.947257 24.178719 27.972599 32.297469 37.066538 42.716046
2024-10-20 12.686096 16.584692 21.305700 27.409805 35.055859 44.276171 56.192043
2024-10-27 9.272861 13.322228 18.639184 26.058074 36.055523 48.961867 66.767318
2024-11-03 8.026854 12.442209 18.626245 27.787812 40.853295 58.623423 84.380346
2024-11-10 7.265974 12.023793 19.065079 30.037974 46.444479 69.740937 104.901140
2024-11-17 6.193909 10.911087 18.267280 30.289156 49.072676 76.824897 120.287688
2024-11-24 5.206147 9.735423 17.157965 29.842346 50.489332 82.133236 133.397953
2024-12-01 4.334120 8.587355 15.898348 28.935550 50.993958 85.982339 144.481222
2024-12-08 3.759941 7.858304 15.218362 28.861200 52.764019 91.861992 159.092286
2024-12-15 3.321598 7.301835 14.750111 29.064259 54.966721 98.550971 175.444028
2024-12-22 2.713528 6.303232 13.327363 27.361388 53.648556 99.227657 181.847870
2024-12-29 2.498292 6.070533 13.318419 28.260202 57.031230 108.122072 202.739695
2025-01-05 2.332850 5.943089 13.550630 29.751856 61.848870 120.258125 230.821935
2025-01-12 1.986510 5.351690 12.765088 29.162293 62.735882 125.577187 247.548306
2025-01-19 1.629682 4.658079 11.648632 27.733456 61.809930 127.466378 258.209158
2025-01-26 1.557802 4.652839 12.047953 29.563463 67.603899 142.450714 294.272566
2025-02-02 1.523881 4.738953 12.666531 31.942928 74.756446 160.596208 337.618823
2025-02-09 1.364831 4.454798 12.365315 32.208489 77.460489 170.216517 365.234170
2025-02-16 1.187894 4.080198 11.781579 31.736113 78.502125 176.565680 386.864699
2025-02-23 1.013496 3.670798 11.039603 30.777312 78.340941 180.402484 403.694199
2025-03-02 0.900358 3.422315 10.677298 30.698691 80.160097 188.489526 429.723681
2025-03-09 0.812139 3.232890 10.444029 30.913412 82.676395 198.239066 459.858378
2025-03-16 0.666946 2.812989 9.489368 29.112488 80.179341 196.888262 466.459609